The Changing World Order 1945–2011

The Changing World Order 1945–2011 is one of six Change in the Modern World options in Section IV. Unlike the essay sections (II and III), this section has one question in three or four parts (no choice of alternatives), and one part is worth 10–15 marks. Smaller parts usually ask you to outline, describe or explain, often using a source; the big part asks for a judgement. The syllabus key features are the idea of the ‘American Century’, the collapse of the Soviet Union, post-Soviet Russia and Eastern Europe, the global role of the USA and the challenges to its foreign policy, and the role of the United Nations.

• Survey: the Cold War world order; the challenges facing the UN (1946–91); the ‘American Century’; the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• The collapse of the USSR: its causes and Gorbachev's role; its political, social and cultural impact; Russia under Putin to 2011.
• US influence 1991–2011: ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power; supporters and opponents in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
• New centres of power 1989–2011: the European Union; the BRIC countries; resurgent nationalism and non-state actors.
• The UN after the Cold War: challenges to peace; debates about its role; one peacekeeping case study, from the former Yugoslavia, Cambodia, Somalia, Rwanda or Timor-Leste.

Choose your peacekeeping case study early and learn it in detail, but know enough about the others to compare.

• The ‘American Century’: Henry Luce's phrase (1941). In 1945 the USA produced roughly half the world's manufactured goods, held the atomic monopoly (to 1949) and led the new institutions: the UN (1945), the IMF and World Bank (Bretton Woods, 1944), later GATT and NATO (1949).
• Bipolarity: the USA and USSR led rival blocs; the Non-Aligned Movement (rooted in the Bandung Conference of 1955; formally founded at Belgrade in 1961) tried to stay outside them.
• The UN in the Cold War: the Security Council veto of the five permanent members (USA, USSR, UK, France, China — the PRC from 1971) often paralysed it. Exceptions: Korea (1950, during a Soviet boycott); the first armed peacekeeping force (UNEF, Suez 1956), after earlier unarmed observer missions. Decolonisation greatly enlarged the General Assembly.
• 1989: revolutions in Eastern Europe; the Berlin Wall fell on 9 November 1989; Germany reunified in October 1990.

Causes

Debate: was the USSR doomed by its system, or brought down by Gorbachev's choices? Some credit Western pressure (Reagan); most historians stress internal causes.

Impact

• Political: fifteen independent states; Russia as successor state (UN seat, nuclear weapons); the October 1993 crisis and Yeltsin's 1993 constitution with a strong presidency.
• Economic and social: shock therapy (1992), hyperinflation, privatisation and the oligarchs (loans-for-shares, 1995); poverty, unpaid wages, falling life expectancy; the 1998 default.
• Cultural: freedom of speech and religion; the revival of the Orthodox Church; Western culture; loss of national status and identity for many.
• Eastern Europe: transitions to democracy and markets; NATO membership (1999, 2004) and EU membership (2004, 2007); the wars in the former Yugoslavia (1991–2001).
• Conflict: the Chechen wars (1994–96, 1999–2009).

Putin's Russia to 2011

• Acting President from 31 December 1999; elected 2000 and 2004; Prime Minister 2008–12 under President Dmitry Medvedev.
• Recentralisation: the ‘power vertical’; control of television; prosecution of oligarchs who opposed him (Mikhail Khodorkovsky, arrested 2003); limits on opposition — sometimes called ‘managed’ or ‘sovereign’ democracy.
• Economic recovery: high oil and gas prices; growth and rising living standards in the 2000s.
• Foreign policy: opposition to NATO enlargement and the Iraq War; the Munich speech (2007); the war with Georgia (August 2008).
• Protests followed the disputed Duma elections of December 2011.

• The ‘unipolar moment’ (Charles Krauthammer, 1990–91); George H. W. Bush's ‘new world order’ (1990).
• Supporters: the UK, Australia, Japan, Israel, newer NATO members such as Poland.
• Opponents and critics: France and Germany over Iraq (2003); Russia and China; Iran; Venezuela under Chávez; widespread anti-Americanism in the Middle East.
• Challenges: Somalia (1993); terrorism and 9/11 (about 3,000 killed); the costs of Afghanistan and Iraq; the 2008 global financial crisis. Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011.

• The European Union: Maastricht (1992; EU from 1993); the single market (1993); the euro (1999; cash from 2002); enlargement (ten members in 2004, two in 2007); the Lisbon Treaty (2009); the eurozone crisis (from 2010). An economic giant but a limited military power.
• The BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, China (term coined by Jim O'Neill, 2001); first summit 2009; South Africa joined 2010–11. China overtook Japan as the second-largest economy in 2010; the G20 grew in importance after 2008.
• Resurgent nationalism: the former Yugoslavia; nationalism in post-Soviet states and in Russia; ethnic conflicts in Africa and the Caucasus.
• Non-state actors: terrorist networks (al-Qaeda), but also NGOs, multinational corporations and global movements.

• Security Council cooperation allowed action against Iraq (1990–91) and many new peacekeeping missions. Missions became complex: protecting civilians, disarming fighters, organising elections, running territories.
• Debates: sovereignty versus humanitarian intervention; the Kosovo war (1999) without Security Council authorisation; the Brahimi Report (2000); the Responsibility to Protect (2005).

Peacekeeping case studies

Worked example (not a bank question).

• _(a) Outline the role of NATO after the Cold War. (4 marks)_ — Survived the end of the Cold War; enlargement (1999, 2004); interventions in Bosnia (1995) and Kosovo (1999); Afghanistan after 2001.
• _(b) Using a source, explain Russia's response to NATO enlargement. (6 marks)_ — Use the source's details; add own knowledge (Russian fears of encirclement, the Kosovo war, Putin's Munich speech of 2007, Georgia 2008); explain.
• _(c) Assess the extent to which China had become a new centre of power by 2011. (15 marks)_ — Economic growth, trade and investment; military modernisation; diplomacy and the BRICs; limits (per-person income, regional rather than global military power).

The three parts total 25 marks, the value of Section IV. Spend your time in proportion to the marks: the paper gives 180 minutes for 100 marks, so roughly 1.8 minutes per mark (about 45 minutes for this section).

• Dating the end of the USSR to 1989 (that was Eastern Europe) instead of December 1991.
• Confusing hard and soft power (sanctions are hard power).
• Writing about only the USA; the syllabus also covers Russia, the EU, the BRICs and the UN.
• Treating INTERFET as a UN peacekeeping force; it was a UN-authorised, Australian-led multinational force.
• Forgetting the endpoint: 2011.

• Use precise terms: bipolar, unipolar, multipolar, hegemony, hard and soft power, globalisation, sovereignty, humanitarian intervention, peacekeeping, peace enforcement.
• Show change over time: from bipolarity (to 1989–91), to US dominance (the 1990s), to a more contested order (after 2001 and 2008).
• In source parts, quote briefly, explain, and add your own knowledge.
• In the 10–15 mark part, make a judgement in your first sentence and return to it at the end of every paragraph.

• The Cold War 1945–1991 covers the bipolar order and its end in detail.
• Conflict in the Gulf 1980–2011 covers the 1991 and 2003 wars and the UN's role in Iraq.
• The Cultural Revolution to Tiananmen Square 1966–1989 explains the beginnings of China's rise.
• Indonesia 1945–2005 covers Timor-Leste from Indonesia's side.